I started looking at how bitcoin's price might evolve
in the future. I was initially driven to do this after reading predictions
that seemed ridiculous: Some "experts" have proclaimed that bitcoin would
be worth $0 "within 5 years" for more than 5 years, whereas others profess
that bitcoin will have non-diminishing returns, forever, in spite of
empirical evidence to the contrary.
Predicting the future is impossible. But some future scenarios are more
likely than others. I am trying to figure out what is very unlikely,
and what is more likely.